Fueling Progress: Alaska’s Oil Situation

Taking a Look at The Willow Project

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Willow Project Site

Alaska's oil reserves have long been a vital economic driver for the state and an important domestic source of energy for the nation. However, in recent years, Alaska's oil projects have faced mounting criticism from environmental activists and others concerned about climate change impacts. One such controversial project is the proposed Willow oil field development on the North Slope. While climate concerns are valid, and have good cause, a closer look shows that the economic and energy security benefits provided by Willow and other Alaska oil projects far outweigh the climate tradeoffs.

First and foremost, the sheer economic impact for Alaska would be substantial and transformative. The state currently faces a $1 billion budget deficit, and oil revenues account for over 85% of the state's budget. Without oil revenue, Alaska would be economically vulnerable. The Willow project alone is estimated to create over 2,000 jobs during construction and 300 permanent jobs once operational. In total, the project is expected to generate $8 billion in federal revenue and $8-17 billion for the state over the life of the project. This revenue could completely eliminate Alaska's deficit and provide billions for critical services. With Alaska facing ongoing budget shortfalls, the revenue from Willow and other oil projects is absolutely essential to fund education, healthcare, public safety, infrastructure maintenance and all other state services. Oil revenue quite literally keeps the state solvent.

In addition to direct revenue, the Willow project will also support economic development in northern Alaska through millions invested in supporting infrastructure within the North Slope region. This includes investments in roads, bridges, airports, and utilities near the project site. While this infrastructure legacy is more localized, it will still benefit the North Slope economy for decades to come. Currently, large areas of rural Alaska lack even basic infrastructure taken for granted in the continental US, such as running water, electricity, internet access, health clinics and roads. Broader resource development projects have the potential to provide a means to bridge this infrastructure gap and bring modern amenities to more remote villages. With new access and connectivity, rural communities across Alaska can develop more robust and sustainable economies beyond just subsistence living. Responsible oil development is one pathway to help provide opportunity and self-determination for all Alaskans.

Furthermore, increasing domestic oil production in Alaska enhances America's energy security and reduces reliance on imported oil from politically turbulent regions like the Middle East and countries like Saudi Arabia. Prior to the growth of Alaskan oil in the 1970s, the US relied heavily on imported OPEC oil, leaving the nation vulnerable to energy shocks and price instability beyond domestic control. Alaskan oil helps reduce this dependence and the associated economic and national security risks. For example, the Willow project alone is estimated to produce up to 160,000 barrels per day at peak production, offsetting the need for imports. Greater energy independence provides economic and national security benefits for the country as a whole.

Now, it is certainly true that oil production does generate greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change. But, the context is important. Estimates show that globally, the Willow project would account for just 0.17% of total greenhouse gas emissions from the oil and gas sector for the year 2022. But if we are just talking about greenhouse gasses globally it is even lower. Domestically, it would represent a mere 0.1% of total U.S. emissions, for the year 2021. While any new emission source is concerning, the incremental climate impact from Willow specifically is objectively small on a global or national scale.

Also, the gradual transition to renewable energy sources and greener technologies will nullify these marginal emissions over time. So in the broader context, the limited emissions from a project like Willow will be counterbalanced by the growth of zero-emission sources. The net impact is relatively minor, especially when factoring in Alaska's economic dependence on oil revenue. Shuttering projects like Willow would damage Alaska's economy while having negligible climate benefit. A more pragmatic approach recognizes that oil production will decline naturally as green energy scales up. Alaska can assist in this transition through responsible resource development.

This, however, is a solution that is temporary but necessary to avoid disaster. Opponents of Willow say we need to restructure our economy away from extraction, and this is true, but we need to construct the Willow project in order to do this. We need fiscal security before we even consider making drastic changes to our economy. The Willow project, albeit temporarily, will bring that fiscal security and breathing room the state needs in order to consider a transition away from extraction.

Moreover, even in the lower 48 states, the direct warming impact from US oil production is questionable. US greenhouse gas emissions have declined over the last decade largely due to electric power sector shifts from coal to natural gas. However, climate activists still vocally oppose US oil production projects like Keystone XL and Dakota Access even though domestic oil emits less GHGs than foreign sources when factoring in transport emissions. Keeping US oil production flowing in places like Alaska and the Dakotas reduces the need for seaborne imports from the Middle East halfway around the world. In addition to energy security benefits, consuming domestically produced oil results in lower net emissions than overseas oil once transport is considered. Climate advocates opposing US oil projects may inadvertently promote higher net emissions from ultimately imported sources.

This needed climate context illustrates why an all-or-nothing approach to oil production is problematic. Eliminating projects like Willow would damage Alaska's economy and energy security but hardly "stop climate change". Yet activists present this false binary choice between shuttering all oil projects immediately or supposedly accepting climate apocalypse. In reality, Alaska can develop its resources responsibly while still contributing to measured emissions reductions. The state has set impressive climate goals to reduce carbon intensity 80% by 2050 even while continuing to utilize its natural advantages in oil production. More balanced policies recognize economic realities and the fact that oil will remain part of the global energy mix for decades to come as renewable sources scale up gradually. Alaska can assist in this transition.

Alaska's oil industry powers the state's economy and enhances America's energy security while bringing vital infrastructure to rural areas. With projects like Willow incorporating greener technologies, Alaska can develop its resources responsibly. The economic and energy benefits far outweigh the relatively marginal climate impacts, especially given Alaska's exceptional dependence on oil revenue. Climate activists often deal in absolutes but real solutions require pragmatic balance. Alaska's oil plays a vital role in fueling America's future as the worldwide energy transition continues gradually over this century. With the right policies and technological evolution, Alaska can produce energy in modern low-carbon ways rather than simply shuttering its main economic engine. The path forward lies in optimization, not absolutism. Projects like Willow represent a measured approach to balancing Alaska's energy resources with environmental performance and economic realities. This balanced pathway can power progress in the Last Frontier State.